My 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

By Mike Bass
mbass@mikebasscoaching.com

For 10 years, I watched Joe Mauer do things I had never seen any catcher do ... things nobody had ever seen any major league catcher do.

All those before him had combined for three batting titles – Bubbles Hargrave in 1926, and Ernie Lombardi in 1938 and 1942. Mauer won three himself. In four years.

Only Josh Gibson in the 1930s Negro Leagues can match that. Joe Mauer is not Josh Gibson. Nobody is. Mauer does not have to be. He is just Joe. Minnesota Nice. The kid from St. Paul. The phenom who declined a scholarship to play quarterback for Bobby Bowden at Florida State, who struck out only once in high school, who was drafted No. 1 by the Twins, the home team. A natural.

A Hall of Famer in waiting.

At 20, Mauer was the Twins’ Opening Day catcher. At 26, he was the American League MVP. At 30, he was a six-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glover, a five-time Silver Slugger winner.

I was St. Paul Pioneer Press sports editor throughout Mauer’s decade at catcher. I got to see a player for the ages at his position when he played it. He was seemingly Cooperstown-bound if he could stay healthy.

He often could not.

Injuries shortened a number of seasons. A concussion forced a position switch. I followed from a distance as Mauer went from generational catcher to underpowered seemingly overpriced first baseman, haunted by expectations he already had stopped meeting.

And yet I still voted for him for the Hall of Fame.

For years, I wondered if Mauer had done enough. But over time, the game evolves, analytics evolve and standards evolve. Traditional and modern statistics accumulated over long careers remain part of the equation, but emphasis has increased on shorter-term dominance emboldened by analytics. This is well beyond WAR. This is WAR7. This is JAWS. A player’s seven best (and not necessarily consecutive) seasons matter. But how much?

If I am going to evolve, and accept it as part of my process, then Joe Mauer is an easy choice.

While I generally prefer longer-term excellence, Mauer played the most grueling position in baseball, one many leave for career longevity, one underrepresented in the Hall of Fame. For a decade, he was a defining player of his time at his position, which I value in a Hall of Famer.

To tell the story of baseball in his era, he belongs in the conversation. He belongs in Cooperstown.

Consider who he was instead of who he could have been.

A 2006 Sports Illustrated cover called him “American Idol.”

In 2009, who could argue?

Sidelined by injury until May, Mauer returned to hit over .400 through June 21, with a career-high 14 home runs already. In the end, he set the AL batting-average record for a catcher (.365) and became the only major league catcher to win a league’s “Slash Stat” Triple Crown (.365/.444/.587). He finished with 28 home runs, 96 RBIs and a 7.8 WAR. He was one vote from a unanimous MVP.

Mauer also was one year from free agency.

Anxiety gripped the Twin Cities. Now way could the Twins christen Target Field in 2010 with a lame duck of a main attraction. Weeks before the season, they signed him to a $184 million, eight-year contract extension starting in 2011 – high for them but low compared to the potential market.

It was the right move.

He followed his MVP season with three more All-Star selections in the next four years, but the Mauer power in that final Metrodome season went out in Target Field. Add in more injuries, the team eventually sliding and Mauer eventually sliding toward first, and you have a $23 million a year target for criticism. It was understandable if somewhat unfair. He wasn’t the 2009 Mauer. But he still was special. And he was finishing a special run.

During that decade of catching primarily, Mauer compiled a .323/.405/.469 overall slash line.

Yep, special.

His three seasons after the concussion were subpar, but a rebound 2017 is more indicative of who he is. Mauer slashed .305/.384/.417 with 36 doubles as Minnesota reached the playoffs. Another concussion the next May sidelined him a month and led to him retiring at age 35 after the season. As always with Joe Mauer, we can wonder what he might have accomplished if healthy.

But why not focus on what he accomplished when healthy? Why not remember him for his coda?

In his final 17 games, Mauer hit .358. His sendoff was a one-pitch cameo at catcher, exiting to a Target Field ovation and the theme from “The Natural.” Naturally. 

Mauer ended his career with 2,123 hits and a 306/.388/.439 slash line. His WAR (9th), WAR 7 (5th) and JAWS (7th) all are Hall of Fame catcher territory. He was arguably the best there was at what he did, when he did it.

And I voted for him on the first ballot.

Here are the rest of my selections:

ANOTHER FIRST-BALLOT CHOICE

ADRIAN BELTRE: This one was easy. He hit .286 with 477 home runs and 1,707 RBIs. He finished with 3,166 hits. He won five Gold Gloves. He was a four-time All-Star. He was in the top 10 of MVP voting six times. Third base is a dead zone for the Hall of Fame, and this guy is No. 3 in bWAR (93.5), behind only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews. Everyone else in the top 11 is in there. He is fourth in JAWS, sixth in WAR7.

I could go on, but why bother? If he isn’t a first-ballot Hall of Famer, something is seriously wrong with the process.

HOLDOVERS FROM MY LAST BALLOT

TODD HELTON: He just missed getting the 75 percent necessary last year (72.2). This is his year. He deserves it. I got over the Coors Field Effect with Larry Walker. Helton finished with a .316 batting average (which I still value). Naturally, he fared better at home (1.048 OPS vs. .855 on the road). He lacks Walker’s overall credentials, but he won three Gold Gloves, and his 61.8 bWAR ranks 17th among first basemen. Of the 16 ahead of him, 11 are Hall of Famers, two lost out in BBWAA voting because of PED ties (Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire), and three are future Cooperstown candidates (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto).

BILLY WAGNER: He has a strong shot at election this year, too, after rising to 68.1 percent last year. This is his ninth time on the ballot, and if he doesn’t make it, he should come close. Wagner was a dominant one-inning reliever, and once I valued him for what he was, he earned my vote. Wagner’s 422 saves rank sixth, not quite Cooperstown level, but his 2.31 ERA beats seven of the eight Hall of Fame relievers, trailing only Mariano Rivera (2.21). Among pitchers with 800 or more innings, Wagner owns the highest strikeout rate for batters faced (33.2 percent) and per nine innings (11.9) and the lowest opponent batting average (.187), according to FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe. Wagner is what he is, and he is impressive.

GARY SHEFFIELD: This is his last chance, and he is a long shot. Can he catapult from 55 percent last year? Considering who else hasn’t made it, I doubt it. He claims he unknowingly took PEDs, but he did come out in favor of steroid testing and never was punished by MLB for PED use. He might not have been an ideal teammate, and his minus-27.7 defensive WAR is last of 500 right fielders on Baseball Reference, but Sheffield is all about his bat. His 80.7 offensive WAR ranks sixth among right fielders, and everyone else in the top 15 is in the Hall. He hit .292 with 509 homers and 1,676 RBIs. He was a nine-time All-Star. He finished in the top 10 for MVP voting six times. He is flawed, but he crosses the Cooperstown line for my vote.

ADDITION TO MY BALLOT

JIMMY ROLLINS: I added him late to my ballot. At a time when peak years are being highlighted – especially with Phillies double-play partner Chase Utley on his first ballot – I thought it was important to keep someone with more longevity and traditional value in the conversation. Rollins compares well to a lot of Hall shortstops, just not of this century and not in more modern measurements.

His WAR (47.6), JAWS (40.1) and OBP (.324) are relatively low in an age of slugging shortstops. His batting average is not ideal (.264), but he had some power (231 homers), he could run (470 steals), he could play defense (four Gold Gloves), he made multiple All-Star teams (3), he won an MVP (2007), and he helped the Phillies win one World Series (2008) and reach another (2009). And he played, finishing with 2,455 hits in 2,275 games.

I am not entirely convinced he is a Hall of Famer, but he is the only shortstop in major league history with 2,400 hits, 200 homers, 100 triples, 500 doubles and 400 steals, according to Cooperstown Cred. Let’s keep talking about him.

CLOSE BUT NO

CARLOS BELTRAN: His numbers are good enough, but I still can’t get past his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing plot. In time, I might give that less weight. Not yet.

CHASE UTLEY: I almost voted for him. Like Mauer, he was great for a time. He just didn’t play enough. From 2005-09, he made four of his six All-Star teams, won four Silver Sluggers at second base and finished in the top eight in MVP voting three times. His combined WAR was 39.7 – 45.5 if you add an injury-shortened 2010.

And that is the problem. Too many injuries. FanGraphs’ Jaffe wrote that Utley’s 2005-14 WAR of 59.7 was second to Albert Pujols’ 67.7. Which is impressive but deceiving. The last four years of that, Utley’s was 14.2. That is good but nowhere near his previous level.

Utley’s overall 64.5 WAR is 15th, below Hall average at second base. His 56.9 JAWS is 12th, right around Hall average. He finished with just 1,885 hits, and you’d like to see a Hall of Famer with at least 2,000. He won no Gold Gloves, although metrics show he was vastly underrated.

For a five- or six-year period, Utley was terrific. At this point, I don’t see that as enough. But I could easily see myself changing with more time and context.

ANDRUW JONES: I used to see Jones like Mauer. Terrific for a decade, but not long enough. Now I am far more open to Jones, too, and gave him a particularly hard look this year. But I still am not convinced.

For 10 years, he was terrific, a five-time All-Star with 345 home runs and 10 Gold Gloves. His proponents point to his dWAR of 24.4, the best of all time among center fielders. But I find it hard to believe he is first, Kevin Keirmaier is second … and Willie Mays is fourth at 18.2. Bill doesn’t buy it, either. James says the totals skew toward the modern player, because of the available data.

Other defensive metrics put Jones as excellent for his time, maybe among the greatest ever, but maybe not worthy of all those Gold Gloves. To me, that 24.4 dWAR overinflates Jones’ 62.7 total. His oWAR is only 39.8, which ranks 51st among center fielders via Baseball Reference.

All around, his credentials remain borderline. Jones’ weight gain dragged down his entire game. His WAR was 61 through his age 30 season, 1.7 for the next five seasons. He finished with just 1,933 hits. His .254 batting average would be lowest for a Hall outfielder. His 438 home runs, 62.7 WAR and 54.6 JAWS give him credibility, but not his .254/.337/.486 slash line.

Is Jones any more worthy of the Hall for center field than Jim Edmonds or Dale Murphy? Jones finished with a 112 OPS+, compared to 132 for Edmonds and 121 for Murphy. All have power. All are strong defensively.

No doubt Jones was a stellar defensive center fielder, maybe best of his era. But he crashed after 30, his offense was spectacular but flawed, his domestic violence issue hurts his resume, and I’m still not ready to vote for him.

As always, I will keep an open mind.